From AI Hype to Real Value Creation

Are we in an AI bubble? Many seem to believe so.

Last week Jensen Huang (NVDA) dropped some perspective on the Q3 earnings call. "From our vantage point, we see something very different," referencing a fundamental shift in computing, not speculation.

He emphasized the phase of massive infra build-out (the "picks and shovels") is transitioning into the next wave which will drive revolutionary applications.

He went on to say that the momentum now depends on companies deploying AI at scale, creating actual value through applications, products, services and revenue.

Now it's time to "find the gold" in order to maintain the momentum.

In other words, we're on the precipitous of a once in a lifetime revolution, but in order to maintain momentum, we need real world, tangible value creation.

I like to envision this... as a surfer... the setup is there. About to ride the biggest wave the world has ever seen. Massive. Hard to comprehend the size. Nazaré in November. The window is there--ready to drop in. If there's any hesitation, if unable to capitalize on the momentum and drop in, the wave collapses, with us on the backside. Wasted opportunity. All this buildup comes crashing down.

All the demand is there (the wave builds). Evidenced by NVDA's earnings call beating expectations. The infrastructure companies, the datacenter builders, the hardware, energy, networking, all have pumped this wave into the stratosphere and are handing it off to the application builders to create the value.

So, this begs the question, what's next? Will the builders wipe out? Or will we catch stride?

We've been promised a lot by many companies. Most of those companies will fail.

OpenAI in its current state feels like a flash in the pan.

Physical AI feels like its coming in a big way to disrupt. Specifically Tesla with FSD & Robotaxi may be the first tangible thing the public will have access to, the ChatGPT moment for Physical AI.

I think "AI as a co-worker" is here and will explode in the next 6 months. Think browser & application-based agents that support your existing workflows.

I believe true Agentic AI, where it runs truly automously and without full oversight and human intervention is ~1-2 years from widespread adoption and will absolutely disruption/destroy white collar work as we know it.

Healthcare adoption will explode in the next 6 months--think doctors using AI to transcribe or provide prelim analysis.

Q1/Q2 we can expect to see the first wave of factory/warehouse deployments that will improve the bottom line.

Automated trading agents will explode in the next 6 months.

The agent economy, still nascent and waiting on proper infra, will realize its network value in the next 6-12 months.

Coding assistants are here and are completely disrupting the engineering industry.

Research agents will be here in the next 1-2 years.

We won’t wake up in May 2026 to fully autonomous robot butlers or AGI, but the gap between "cool demo" and "actually making/saving companies millions" will close faster than any prior 6-month period in AI history. The momentum is shifting decisively from building the picks-and-axes to striking real gold. In order to prevent the "bubble collapse", the adoption needs to happen now in order to sustain this momentum.

Where do you see us going in the next 6 months?

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Ride that wave my friends, time to drop in.