20VC's Big Fat Quiz of the Year: Founder, Fund and Breakout Company...

Full Title

20VC's Big Fat Quiz of the Year: Founder, Fund and Breakout Company of 2025 | Predictions for 2026: The Company to Buy, The Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win 2026 and The Tailwinds NVIDIA Will Face

Summary

This episode features a "Big Fat Quiz of the Year" covering 2025's top founders, funds, and breakout companies, alongside predictions for 2026.

The discussion delves into the impact of AI, market trends, and the future of venture capital, with a focus on identifying successful strategies and potential shifts.

Key Points

• OpenAI's advancements in AI, particularly with Cloud 3.5 and 4, are identified as the most impactful software product of the year, revolutionizing how AI is integrated into other products.
• Dario Amodei is recognized as Founder of the Year for his steady business execution, leading to profitability and strong growth, despite controversial public statements about AI's impact on unemployment.
• Gwynne Shotwell and Alex Wang are highlighted for their exceptional leadership and successful outcomes for investors in 2025, with Shotwell's navigation of geopolitical challenges and Wang's delivery of a valuable social network being particularly noted.
• Index Ventures is named Fund of the Year for its consistent execution and strong performance across multiple exits, demonstrating the enduring effectiveness of traditional venture models.
• Neo and Crandom are recognized for their aesthetic success and strong performance in the accelerator space, with Neo showing particular promise in identifying successful early-stage companies.
• Hummingbird stands out for its impressive 8X return on a $100 million fund, showcasing strong performance in identifying and backing promising companies.
• Thrive Capital is recognized as the growth fund of the year for its strategic expansion of fund size and vehicles, successful investments, and rapid deployment of capital.
• Google is lauded as Corporate Investor of the Year for its significant investments in SpaceX, Anthropic, and Waymo, demonstrating a strong strategic approach to AI and future technologies.
• Lad Gil is highlighted as an individual investor for successfully raising a $3 billion solo fund, demonstrating strong returns and a perceived taste and style that attracts preferred investment.
• Lee Marie at Kleiner Perkins is recognized for her exceptional work, delivering significant returns through two major liquidity events for KP.
• Open Evidence is identified as a breakout company for its successful focus on the AI medical space, catering to doctors' needs for academic research and creating a targeted business model.
• Databricks is celebrated for its exceptional performance in riding the AI wave, significantly changing its company trajectory and demonstrating strong growth acceleration.
• 11 Labs is lauded as a breakout company for its rapid growth to $400 million in ARR, offering significant value and efficiency through its AI-powered voice generation.
• The talent wars and significant compensation packages offered by major tech companies like Meta are identified as a major surprise of 2025, demonstrating a shift in how talent is valued and acquired.
• The concept of "no ceiling on venture" is a recurring theme, with the potential for trillion-dollar IPOs and rapid valuation increases challenging traditional financial models.
• The challenge of taking trillion-dollar companies public in 2026 is discussed, with bankers grappling with how to generate demand and manage large floats and lockups.
• OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are predicted to go public in 2026, though the feasibility of all three is questioned due to market demand and pricing challenges.
• The potential for real AI-driven unemployment by the end of 2026 is a significant concern, with the acknowledgment of AI's role by tech executives potentially fueling public backlash if unemployment numbers rise.
• The conversation concludes with a prediction that NVIDIA will continue to thrive due to sustained demand for compute power, while Google offers a safer bet due to its diversified business and more measured AI rollout.

Conclusion

The year 2025 was defined by the explosive growth and integration of AI, fundamentally changing how businesses operate and invest.

Predicting the future of tech stocks and market trends remains challenging, highlighting the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of the industry.

The increasing valuations and potential for massive IPOs signal a significant shift in the venture capital landscape, with AI continuing to be the primary driver of innovation and investment.

Discussion Topics

• How will the increasing adoption of AI impact traditional job markets and societal structures in the coming years?
• What strategies should founders and investors employ to navigate the rapid pace of AI innovation and potential market disruptions?
• Which specific AI technologies or applications do you believe will see the most significant growth and adoption in 2026?

Key Terms

IPO

Initial Public Offering; the process by which a private company becomes a public company by selling its shares to the public.

AI

Artificial Intelligence; the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, especially computer systems.

LLM

Large Language Model; a type of AI algorithm that uses deep learning techniques and massive data sets to understand, generate, and work with human language.

VC

Venture Capital; financing that is provided by investors to startup companies and small businesses that are believed to have long-term growth potential.

B2B

Business-to-Business; commerce between companies, rather than between a company and an individual consumer.

ARR

Annual Recurring Revenue; the predictable revenue a company expects to receive from its customers over a year.

CapEx

Capital Expenditures; funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets such as property, industrial buildings, or equipment.

TPU

Tensor Processing Unit; a specialized processor developed by Google for machine learning and artificial intelligence workloads.

GPU

Graphics Processing Unit; a specialized electronic circuit designed to rapidly manipulate and alter memory to accelerate the creation of images in a frame buffer intended for output to a display device.

CDS Swaps

Credit Default Swaps; a financial contract that allows an investor to "swap" or offset their credit risk with that of another investor.

GTM

Go-to-Market; a plan that outlines how a company will reach target customers and achieve competitive advantage.

ACV

Annual Contract Value; the average annual revenue generated by a customer contract.

SaaS

Software as a Service; a software distribution model in which a third-party provider hosts applications and makes them available to customers over the Internet.

Timeline