Submarines and the Future of Defense Manufacturing
a16z PodcastFull Title
Submarines and the Future of Defense Manufacturing
Summary
This episode discusses the critical need to rebuild US defense manufacturing capacity, specifically for submarines, highlighting the workforce shortage and the potential of software-driven factories to address these challenges.
The conversation emphasizes the strategic importance of submarines for deterrence and naval power projection, and how advanced manufacturing techniques are essential to meet the growing demand.
Key Points
- Submarines provide unparalleled stealth and access, making them crucial for projecting US power, maintaining deterrence, and ensuring open waterways.
- The US lost significant manufacturing expertise after the Cold War, leading to a severe shortage of skilled labor needed for current defense production, especially for the new Columbia-class submarines requiring an estimated 70 million labor hours.
- Advanced manufacturing facilities, like Hadrian's, aim to increase productivity and compress training timelines through software integration and automation to overcome the workforce deficit, not a lack of funding.
- The creation of a dedicated "submarine czar" role highlights the strategic importance and complexity of the submarine program, aiming to streamline decision-making and accelerate production.
- Software-driven manufacturing can enhance flexibility for high-mix, low-volume production, allowing for rapid reconfiguration of lines and on-demand part manufacturing, crucial for complex systems like submarines.
- The collaboration between the Navy and advanced manufacturers like Hadrian is essential for increasing production capacity, with a focus on both new submarine construction and maintaining existing fleets through parts manufacturing.
- Future naval capabilities may involve integrating submarines with autonomous drone systems for enhanced intelligence gathering and operational flexibility beyond strategic deterrence.
- A key misconception is that advanced manufacturing means less need for people; instead, it requires highly skilled software engineers and a focus on workforce development to combine human expertise with technological productivity.
Conclusion
Rebuilding defense manufacturing, particularly for submarines, is a national imperative driven by a critical workforce shortage, not a funding issue.
Software-driven advanced manufacturing holds the key to increasing productivity, compressing training, and enabling the flexibility needed to meet defense production demands.
Strategic leadership consolidation and a focus on people, combined with technological innovation, are essential for the US to regain and maintain its manufacturing edge in critical defense sectors.
Discussion Topics
- How can the US effectively incentivize a new generation to pursue careers in advanced manufacturing for defense?
- What are the long-term implications of relying on advanced manufacturing and AI to fill critical labor gaps in the defense industry?
- How will the integration of autonomous systems and submarines redefine naval warfare and strategic deterrence in the coming decades?
Key Terms
- Ballistic missile submarines
- Submarines equipped to carry and launch nuclear missiles, forming a key part of a nation's nuclear deterrent.
- Nuclear triad
- The three-pronged military nuclear strategy of a country, typically consisting of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers.
- High-mix low volume
- A manufacturing strategy where a wide variety of products are produced in small quantities, contrasting with mass production of a single item.
- Sequence critical material
- Components that are essential for a specific step in a production process and must be available at the right time to avoid delays.
Timeline
Submarines offer stealth and access, crucial for projecting power and maintaining deterrence.
The US de-emphasized manufacturing post-Cold War, leading to a critical shortage of skilled labor for current submarine production needs.
Advanced factories and software integration are key to achieving necessary productivity jumps to meet submarine production demands.
The issue is a people problem, not a budget problem, as the necessary funds exist but the skilled workforce does not.
The episode features David Ulovich in conversation with Chris Power (Hadrian) and Vice Admiral Robert Goucher (Pentagon's submarine czar).
Admiral Goucher explains the critical roles of submarines in ensuring open seaways and strategic deterrence through their stealth and missile capabilities.
The decline in manufacturing post-Cold War led to a massive reduction in submarine production capacity and a loss of skilled labor.
Chris Power emphasizes that the loss of skilled workforce is the primary challenge, with advanced factories needing to boost individual productivity significantly.
Admiral Goucher describes his role as the "submarine czar" created to elevate and streamline strategic deterrence programs, including submarines.
Success in the next 3-5 years is defined by being on cadence to deliver the required submarines.
Restarting the industrial base was difficult but has improved due to government support and leadership consolidation, with streamlined decision-making being a major change.
Beyond strategic deterrence, submarines offer unique advantages in modern conflict by enabling undetected deployment of missiles, torpedoes, and potential integration with underwater drones.
Chris Power outlines how modern software-driven factories increase productivity by augmenting human skills and provide flexibility for high-mix, low-volume production.
The core needs for submarine construction are productive people, advanced manufacturing capabilities, and efficient supply chains, with sequence-critical material being a major bottleneck.
Chris Power is confident in Hadrian's ability to manufacture critical submarine components like air flasks and hatches, addressing supply chain gaps.
The episode contrasts the $16 billion, decade-long build of Columbia-class submarines with the development of lower-cost, expendable autonomous underwater drones.
Admiral Goucher sees corollaries between drone manufacturing and submarine module building, but highlights the multi-mission versatility of submarines compared to single-mission drones.
Chris Power identifies the misconception that advanced manufacturing eliminates the need for people, stressing that it requires highly skilled personnel and significant workforce development.
Episode Details
- Podcast
- a16z Podcast
- Episode
- Submarines and the Future of Defense Manufacturing
- Official Link
- https://a16z.com/podcasts/a16z-podcast/
- Published
- March 25, 2026