Why Speed, Not Size, Will Define the Next War
a16z PodcastFull Title
Why Speed, Not Size, Will Define the Next War
Summary
The episode discusses the evolving landscape of warfare, emphasizing that speed and technological innovation, rather than sheer size, will determine success in future conflicts.
It highlights the need for the U.S. to accelerate its defense strategy through government, industry, and Silicon Valley collaboration, particularly focusing on autonomous systems and agile procurement.
Key Points
- Current geopolitical challenges are the most dangerous in 50 years, requiring a new approach to defense that integrates technology and partnerships.
- The U.S. is considered ready to defend Taiwan, a readiness bolstered by political will, regional capacity, and the strategic application of advanced technology.
- Taiwan is actively preparing by extending military service and investing in key technology priorities, drawing lessons from conflicts in Ukraine and Israel.
- The U.S. defense strategy must account for China's proximity advantage, while its strengths lie in alliances, a superior military, and its innovative economic engine.
- The pace of technological advancement necessitates faster adoption and development by the U.S. government to maintain its strategic edge.
- Current government procurement processes are too slow and risk-averse, hindering the adoption of new technologies; reforms are needed to prioritize speed and outcomes.
- The war in Ukraine has underscored the importance of agility, rapid iteration, and operating in GPS- and comms-denied environments.
- Open-source intelligence (OSINT) is becoming as valuable as classified intelligence due to its speed and accessibility, shifting strategic priorities.
- Autonomy, particularly in drones, is transforming warfare by reducing human risk and increasing cost-effectiveness, impacting conflict outcomes globally.
- The U.S. military is adapting to multi-domain warfare (including cyber and space) and the necessity of autonomous operations across these domains.
- Booz Allen Hamilton is focused on injecting technology into national security challenges, emphasizing AI, cyber, and edge technologies, driven by a "speed-centricity" philosophy.
- Shield AI develops next-generation autonomous systems, offering a software development kit for autonomy and providing Group 3 drones that can operate in complex, non-runway environments.
- Partnerships between companies like Booz Allen and Shield AI are crucial for accelerating the delivery of advanced technology to the military and responding to global defense needs.
- An "all-of-nation" approach is required, combining government, industry, and the innovation sector to counter increasingly collaborative adversaries.
- Supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly concerning critical minerals, pose a significant risk, necessitating efforts for domestic or allied sourcing.
- The biggest challenge to AI adoption is not solely technology or policy, but learning to use and evolve these dynamic algorithms in real-time, mirroring the agility seen in Ukraine.
- Cybersecurity and adversarial AI are critical considerations to ensure the integrity and safety of autonomous systems and algorithms.
- The Middle East is seen as an area of opportunity for technological cooperation and defense investment, potentially expanding existing peace agreements.
- Procurement reform is progressing through cultural shifts and a greater willingness to adopt commercial-like buying practices, but outdated regulatory frameworks remain a bottleneck.
- The ultimate goal of defense procurement should be outcome-based payment, holding suppliers accountable for delivering specific results within defined cost and timeframes.
Conclusion
The future of warfare hinges on speed and technological innovation, requiring a fundamental shift in how defense strategies are developed and implemented.
Accelerating the adoption of new technologies and reforming outdated procurement processes are critical for maintaining a strategic edge against evolving global threats.
Collaborative partnerships between government, industry, and the tech sector are essential for driving this rapid evolution and ensuring national security.
Discussion Topics
- How can the U.S. defense procurement system be reformed to prioritize speed and innovation while maintaining accountability?
- What are the most significant ethical and security implications of the increasing reliance on autonomous systems in warfare?
- In what ways can civilian technology and commercial best practices be more effectively integrated into military operations to accelerate modernization?
Key Terms
- Autonomy
- The ability of a system to operate independently without continuous human control.
- C2 Systems
- Command and Control systems, which are used to manage and coordinate military operations.
- OSINT
- Open-Source Intelligence, information that is publicly available and can be gathered from sources like social media, news, and commercial satellites.
- Group 3 drone
- A classification of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) based on their weight and capabilities, typically used for surveillance and reconnaissance.
- SDK
- Software Development Kit, a collection of software tools that allow developers to create applications for a specific platform.
- Zero Trust
- A security framework that requires all users and devices to be authenticated and authorized before gaining access to resources, regardless of their location.
- Adversarial AI
- The field of study focused on attacking and defending AI systems, including understanding vulnerabilities and developing countermeasures.
- Digital twins
- Virtual replicas of physical objects or systems used for simulation, analysis, and prediction.
Timeline
Gary and Horacio discuss America's readiness to defend Taiwan and what readiness entails.
Horacio explains readiness as a combination of political will, capacity, and technology.
The shift in the venture capital and entrepreneurial landscape towards defense innovation is discussed.
A comparison of U.S. and Chinese military readiness, highlighting China's proximity advantage and the U.S. strengths.
The discussion turns to the defense industrial base and the need for speed in procurement.
The bottlenecks in government purchasing and program processes are identified as key issues.
An explanation of how the U.S. procurement process is built on minimizing risk, not cost or speed.
The need for a new procurement process that allows for upstream failure to achieve downstream success and speed.
Lessons from the Ukrainian conflict regarding fast iteration and battlefield learning are highlighted.
The improvement in procurement processes over the last decade is acknowledged, but the need for greater speed is emphasized.
Concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly regarding critical minerals, are raised.
The inability to source or procure certain technology components within the U.S. or from steadfast allies is noted.
Gary reflects on how the conflict in Ukraine has changed understanding of what leads to success.
Gary shares insights from supporting Ukrainians and the importance of immediate problem-solving.
The challenges of operating in GPS-denied, comms-denied environments are discussed.
Booz Allen's strengths at the "edge" in communications and cyber, and their interoperability with commercial technology are detailed.
The growing importance and speed of open-source intelligence (OSINT) in modern warfare is explored.
The critical role of autonomy in drones, reducing risk and impacting conflict outcomes, is emphasized.
The transition from human-manned systems to autonomous systems and the increased responsibility on technology is described.
The hosts confirm America's readiness for future warfare, acknowledging the multi-domain nature and need for autonomy.
Autonomy's necessity in space and other domains due to latency and reaction time is explained.
Significant investment and ongoing efforts across various defense technologies are confirmed.
Gary details Booz Allen's evolution and current focus on technology injection in national security.
Booz Allen's three phases of development: mission obsession, power of technology, and speed centricity, are outlined.
Shield AI's history, focus on next-generation autonomous systems, and product lines are presented.
The partnership between Booz Allen and Shield AI is highlighted for delivering mission outcomes and enabling sovereign autonomy.
The concept of an "all-of-nation" approach is discussed in the context of challenging geopolitical moments.
The necessity for the U.S. to have a response that involves everyone, not just the government or defense base.
The role of partnerships in driving agility and speed in leveraging physical AI.
The idea of complex partnerships creating an "ecosystem" to bring the best of the U.S. economy into national security.
The discussion shifts to trust, safety, and AI in legal systems, addressing bottlenecks in technology, policy, or other areas.
The dynamic and learning nature of AI algorithms, differentiating them from simpler algorithms.
The challenge of regulating dynamic AI without slowing down innovation or creating unnecessary frameworks.
The importance of experimentation and proving algorithms quickly, as demonstrated by the Ukrainians.
The potential to accelerate AI deployment through methods like digital twins.
The critical importance of cybersecurity to ensure customer confidence and prevent tampering with autonomous systems.
Booz Allen's expertise in adversarial AI and its application in securing autonomous systems.
The balance between ensuring safety and not waiting for perfection before deploying technology.
The analogy of commercial software updates for autonomous systems to ensure security and resilience.
The need to leverage commercial software practices for updates while ensuring cybersecurity.
A brief look at the geopolitical landscape, including China, Russia, and the Middle East.
The potential for historic expansion of the Abraham Accords and a new model for cooperation in the Middle East is discussed.
The Middle East will remain important for participation, alliances, and technology deployment.
The challenges of export control processes and the need for zero trust programs for sharing technology with allies.
Positive developments in AI adoption across the Middle East and opportunities for defense partnerships.
The difficulty of navigating U.S. export approval processes.
The progress in procurement reform over the last five to ten years, driven by cultural shifts.
The remaining challenge of outdated regulatory frameworks in government procurement.
The shift towards outcome-based payment models as the future for government spending.
The effort to start procurement reform with a blank sheet due to the complexity of current regulations.
The emergence of rapid technology adoption and procurement pathways within the Department of War.
The focus on companies like Shield AI to deliver outcomes within specific timeframes.
The desire for companies to be paid for outcomes rather than just inputs.
The difference in accountability between the commercial world and government contracts.
A concluding summary of the discussion on procurement and accountability.
Episode Details
- Podcast
- a16z Podcast
- Episode
- Why Speed, Not Size, Will Define the Next War
- Official Link
- https://a16z.com/podcasts/a16z-podcast/
- Published
- November 1, 2025